It is harder
than experts thought to predict when sudden shifts in earth's natural
systems will occur, a new study has claimed.
Researchers at
University of California, Davis, said many scientists are looking for
the warning signs that herald sudden changes in natural systems, in
hopes of forestalling those changes or improving our preparations for
them but unfortunately that regime shifts can happen without warning.
"It is harder than thought to predict when sudden shifts in earth's
natural systems will occur. Our new study found, unfortunately, that
regime shifts with potentially large consequences can happen without
warning -- systems can tip precipitously," senior author Alan Hastings
said.
Hastings said, "This means that some effects of global climate change
on ecosystems can be seen only once the effects are dramatic. By that
point returning the system to a desirable state will be difficult, if
not impossible."
The current study focuses on models from ecology, but its findings may
be applicable to other complex systems, especially ones involving
human dynamics such as harvesting of fish stocks or financial markets.
The team led by Hastings, one of the world's top experts, is using
mathematical models (sets of equations) to understand natural systems,
the Science Daily reported.
Scientists widely agree that global climate change is already causing
major environmental effects, such as droughts, heat waves and rising
sea level and they fear that worse is in store.
