FEB 25 TALKS India expects Pakistan to carp over Indus treaty.
The Chenab may
be the new Kashmir.
New Delhi is
bracing for aggressive claims by Islamabad that India is violating the
Indus Waters Treaty. Over the past few weeks Pakistani speakers,
ranging from Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani to the head of the
Lashkar-e-Tayyeba, have publicly said when it comes to India, "Kashmir
and water" are Pakistan's main concerns.
The heart of the
problem is that for environmental reasons the amount of water coming
down all the Punjab rivers is decreasing. Pakistani mismanagement has
aggravated the problem. The key fallout: the Chenab runs low in
winter, stunting the rabi wheat crop.
Islamabad finds
it politically useful to point fingers at New Delhi even though this
may endanger the 1950 treaty, an otherwise shining example of
bilateral cooperation.
An additional
reason Pakistan has begun drumming up the issue is that India has
begun a "run-of-the-river" hydel project along the Kishenganga, a
tributary of the Jhelum that runs through Kashmir, and is surveying
for possible reservoirs along the Chenab.
Both actions are
well within India's rights under Article 3 of the treaty. Neither
affects the amount of water Pakistan gets.
However,
Pakistani has in the past found loud complaints have successfully led
to India delaying such projects. New Delhi believes that it under-uses
its rights under the treaty. India is allowed to store up to 3.6
million acre feet (maf) from "western rivers" the Indus, Jhelum and
Chenab. It has not touched a drop of this yet. The Tulbul barrage,
also denounced by Pakistan, is a run-of-the-river project. If built,
the Chenab reservoirs would cause a temporary diversion.
India is allowed
to tap all the 33 maf of the treaty's eastern rivers the Sutlej, Beas
and Ravi. However, it still allows 3 maf to flow into Pakistan. The
treaty even allows India to compensate for this 3 million maf with
water from the western rivers. It has not attempted to do so. India is
allowed 13.43 maf of western rivers' water for irrigation but only
uses 7.9 maf.
Nonetheless,
Pakistan has complained against the Chenab reservoir at the Indus
commission last year. India has yet to accept the complaint. It may be
interjected into the dialogue.
New Delhi
believes it has a watertight case regarding all Pakistan complaints.
But Islamabad is unlikely to let go. It wants to avoid explaining why
north Punjab is depriving the other Pakistani states of water.
It is also seen
as a rallying cry against India. As Lashkar leader Abdur Rehman Makki
said two weeks ago, "Kashmir had become a cold issue. But by denying
Pakistan water, India has ensured that every farmer in Punjab is
lining up... ready to overrun India."
